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Clear Title of Arizona is pleased to provide its clients with the Clear Connections Monthly Market Update. This report will provide you with the latest real estate trends.
Our business is built around the concept of educating and providing the personal service that Real Estate Agents and Lenders have come to depend upon. We want to provide accurate data to our clients, associates and friends. It is intended to keep you informed on critical market trends that affect our businesses.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME

In November 2016, single family home sales increased year over year in all but three small sectors, with new homes gaining market share:

  • New Homes (up 37%)
  • Normal re-sales (up 31%)
  • Investor flips (up 20%)
  • GSE – Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc. (up 41%)
  • Third party purchases at trustee sales (flat)

Because of lower distress levels, single family home sales decreased year over year in the remaining three sectors:

  • Bank owned homes (down 3%)
  • HUD sales (down 22%)

Short sales / pre-foreclosures (down 20%)

The change in total dollars spent on homes was more favorable than the change in the unit count.

  •  Total dollars spent on single family homes rose by 38% over November 2015.
  •  Total dollars spent on townhouses & condos rose by 44% over November 2015.

During November, average single family pricing edged down after the big rise in October, reading $297,242, down from $298,520 last month and up from $277,002 in November 2015. Average new single family home prices were 1.5% higher than last year while the average new single family home size has declined by 2.2% over the past 12 months.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

The median sales price rose 8.9% from $225,000 in November 2015 to $245,000 in November 2016.

NEW HOME SALES

November was yet another very strong month for new home closings. Newly-built single family homes saw 1,405 closings in November, up 37% from 1,024 in November 2015. The total dollar value of single family new homes closed in November was up 39% from $366 million in 2015 to $509 million in 2016.
The average sq. ft. of a new single family home in November was 2,411, down 2.2% from 2,465 in November 2015. More builders are starting to offer options at entry pricing levels, although many of these are a long way from the center of the valley. The average sq. ft. of a non-distressed resale was 2,001, so new single family homes are 20% larger on average than the existing homes that sold. This percentage has fallen from 22% this time last year. The market share (in dollars) for new single family homes has climbed from 21.8% in November 2015 to 22.0% in November 2016.

DEMAND

Total price for single family homes sold in October.

Total single family, townhouse & condo sales were up 29% in November from a year earlier. Single family sales rose 28% and townhouse / condo sales increased 35% compared to November 2015. However November was a very weak month last year because of the introduction of the new TRID closing regulations.

Single family homes priced over $500,000 took 24% dollar market share, up from 22% last year. There was a 47% increase in dollar volume but the ranges over $2 million only increased by 8%, while the amount spent on homes between $1 million and $2 million was up 64% compared with November 2015. Demand improved relative to November 2015 in almost all areas. Entry level single family homes under $200,000 lost market share from 21% to 17%, partly due to low supply, although this shortage has eased in the West Valley. The mid range between $200,000 and $500,000 has robust demand and reasonable supply and grew market share from 57% to 60%.

Numbers reflect single family homes only.

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

Average price per square foot for single family homes gained 7.8% from $132.98 in November 2015 to $143.31 in November 2016.

SUPPLY

The number of active single family listings without an existing contract was 16,093 for the Greater Phoenix area as of December 1, 2016. This is do
wn 0.7% since November 1. The inventory of single family homes under $150,000 stands at 47 days, the same as a year ago. Overall we have seen 4.5% more new listings created in 2016 than at the same stage in 2015. We expect active listing counts to rise sharply during the first quarter of 2017, but perhaps not a rapidly as they did in 2016. New supply has been strong at the upper price points but remains inadequate below $200,000. In the mid range between $200,000 and $500,000 we are seeing plenty of supply but current demand is more than strong enough to cope with the new listings. Supply has been stronger in the West Valley recently and weakest in the Southeast and Pinal County.

CHANGES IN TRANSACTION MIX

We saw an increase in non-distressed transactions (up 30%), with investor flips up 20%. New home sales were up sharply by 37% but distressed transactions fell 6%. We saw no change in third party purchases at trustee sales but new notices of foreclosure remain at very low levels. Reversions to lenders decreased by 11%.

The entry level market has been very short of supply all year. However there are signs of growing supply in the West Valley, especially in Surprise with adequate supply in the mid range but growth in sales has been strongest here and the supply is getting absorbed very fast, especially in the Southeast. This suits the new home builders who are achieving remarkable growth in closed sales year over year. This too seems likely to continue, along with mild to moderate appreciation. The bulk of the market strongly favors sellers over buyers. There are several areas where the luxury market remained strong through the year, for example Arcadia, Old Town Scottsdale and the DC Ranch area. There are also several upscale condo developments in fashionable locations which are selling well, although many will see completion in 2017 or 2018. The current outlook calls for ongoing challenges for luxury home sellers in the more remote areas since we expect a significant number of new listings will arrive over the next 6 months. We have a large wave of baby boomers reaching retirement age and many are looking to downsize to more convenient and manageable “lock and leave” homes, closer to amenities. This could lead to something of a glut of big detached homes on large lots and a corresponding shortage of smaller, often attached, upscale homes with the contemporary style and features that these buyers are currently looking for.